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The following
letter was sent to Ban Ki-moon,
Secretary-General of the United Nations on the UN Climate
conference in Bali:
Dec.
13, 2007
Dear Mr. Secretary-General,
Re: UN climate conference taking
the World in entirely the wrong direction
It is not possible to stop
climate change, a natural phenomenon that has affected humanity
through the ages. Geological, archaeological, oral and written
histories all attest to the dramatic challenges posed to past
societies from unanticipated changes in temperature,
precipitation, winds and other climatic variables. We therefore
need to equip nations to become resilient to the full range of
these natural phenomena by promoting economic growth and wealth
generation.
The United Nations
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has issued
increasingly alarming conclusions about the climatic influences of
human-produced carbon dioxide (CO2), a non-polluting gas that is
essential to plant photosynthesis. While we understand the
evidence that has led them to view CO2 emissions as harmful, the
IPCC's conclusions are quite inadequate as justification for
implementing policies that will markedly diminish future
prosperity. In particular, it is not established that it is
possible to significantly alter global climate through cuts in
human greenhouse gas emissions. On top of which, because attempts
to cut emissions will slow development, the current UN approach of
CO2 reduction is likely to increase human suffering from future
climate change rather than to decrease it.
The IPCC Summaries for Policy
Makers are the most widely read IPCC reports amongst politicians
and non-scientists and are the basis for most climate change
policy formulation. Yet these Summaries are prepared by a
relatively small core writing team with the final drafts approved
line-by-line by government representatives. The great majority
of IPCC contributors and reviewers, and the tens of thousands of
other scientists who are qualified to comment on these matters,
are not involved in the preparation of these documents. The
summaries therefore cannot properly be represented as a consensus
view among experts.
Contrary to the impression left
by the IPCC Summary reports:
-
Recent observations of
phenomena such as glacial retreats, sea-level rise and the
migration of temperature-sensitive species are not evidence
for abnormal climate change, for none of these changes has
been shown to lie outside the bounds of known natural
variability.
-
The average rate of
warming of 0.1 to 0. 2 degrees Celsius per decade recorded by
satellites during the late 20th century falls within known
natural rates of warming and cooling over the last 10,000
years.
-
Leading scientists,
including some senior IPCC representatives, acknowledge that
today's computer models cannot predict climate. Consistent
with this, and despite computer projections of temperature
rises, there has been no net global warming since 1998. That
the current temperature plateau follows a late 20th-century
period of warming is consistent with the continuation today of
natural multi-decadal or millennial climate cycling.
In stark contrast to the often
repeated assertion that the science of climate change is
"settled," significant new peer-reviewed research has
cast even more doubt on the hypothesis of dangerous human-caused
global warming. But because IPCC working groups were generally
instructed (see
IPCC Working Group Schedule) to consider work published only through May, 2005, these
important findings are not included in their reports; i.e., the
IPCC assessment reports are already materially outdated.
The UN climate conference in Bali
has been planned to take the world along a path of severe CO2
restrictions, ignoring the lessons apparent from the failure of
the Kyoto Protocol, the chaotic nature of the European CO2 trading
market, and the ineffectiveness of other costly initiatives to
curb greenhouse gas emissions. Balanced cost/benefit analyses
provide no support for the introduction of global measures to cap
and reduce energy consumption for the purpose of restricting CO2
emissions. Furthermore, it is irrational to apply the
"precautionary principle" because many scientists
recognize that both climatic coolings and warmings are realistic
possibilities over the medium-term future.
The current UN focus on
"fighting climate change," as illustrated in the Nov. 27
UN Development Programme's Human Development Report, is
distracting governments from adapting to the threat of inevitable
natural climate changes, whatever forms they may take. National
and international planning for such changes is needed, with a
focus on helping our most vulnerable citizens adapt to conditions
that lie ahead. Attempts to prevent global climate change from
occurring are ultimately futile, and constitute a tragic
misallocation of resources that would be better spent on
humanity's real and pressing problems.
Yours faithfully,
Don Aitkin, PhD, Professor,
social scientist, retired vice-chancellor and president,
University of Canberra, Australia
William J.R. Alexander, PhD,
Professor Emeritus, Dept. of Civil and Biosystems Engineering,
University of Pretoria, South Africa; Member, UN Scientific and
Technical Committee on Natural Disasters, 1994-2000
Bjarne Andresen, PhD, physicist,
Professor, The Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen,
Denmark
Geoff L. Austin, PhD, FNZIP,
FRSNZ, Professor, Dept. of Physics, University of Auckland, New
Zealand
Timothy F. Ball, PhD,
environmental consultant, former climatology professor, University
of Winnipeg
Ernst-Georg Beck, Dipl. Biol.,
Biologist, Merian-Schule Freiburg, Germany
Sonja A. Boehmer-Christiansen,
PhD, Reader, Dept. of Geography, Hull University, U.K.; Editor,
Energy & Environment journal
Chris C. Borel, PhD, remote
sensing scientist, U.S.
Reid A. Bryson, PhD, DSc, DEngr,
UNE P. Global 500 Laureate; Senior Scientist, Center for Climatic
Research; Emeritus Professor of Meteorology, of Geography, and of
Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin
Dan Carruthers, M.Sc., wildlife
biology consultant specializing in animal ecology in Arctic and
Subarctic regions, Alberta
R.M. Carter, PhD, Professor,
Marine Geophysical Laboratory, James Cook University, Townsville,
Australia
Ian D. Clark, PhD, Professor,
isotope hydrogeology and paleoclimatology, Dept. of Earth
Sciences, University of Ottawa
Richard S. Courtney, PhD, climate
and atmospheric science consultant, IPCC expert reviewer, U.K.
Willem de Lange, PhD, Dept. of
Earth and Ocean Sciences, School of Science and Engineering,
Waikato University, New Zealand
David Deming, PhD (Geophysics),
Associate Professor, College of Arts and Sciences, University of
Oklahoma
Freeman J. Dyson, PhD, Emeritus
Professor of Physics, Institute for Advanced Studies, Princeton,
N.J.
Don J. Easterbrook, PhD, Emeritus
Professor of Geology, Western Washington University
Lance Endersbee, Emeritus
Professor, former dean of Engineering and Pro-Vice Chancellor of
Monasy University, Australia
Hans Erren,
Doctorandus,
geophysicist and climate specialist, Sittard, The Netherlands
Robert H. Essenhigh, PhD, E.G.
Bailey Professor of Energy Conversion, Dept. of Mechanical
Engineering, The Ohio State University
Christopher Essex, PhD, Professor
of Applied Mathematics and Associate Director of the Program in
Theoretical Physics, University of Western Ontario
David Evans, PhD, mathematician,
carbon accountant, computer and electrical engineer and head of
‘Science Speak,' Australia
William Evans, PhD, editor,
American Midland Naturalist; Dept. of Biological Sciences,
University of Notre Dame
Stewart Franks, PhD, Professor,
Hydroclimatologist, University of Newcastle, Australia
R. W. Gauldie, PhD, Research
Professor, Hawai'i Institute of Geophysics and Planetology, School
of Ocean Earth Sciences and Technology, University of Hawai'i at
Manoa
Lee C. Gerhard, PhD, Senior
Scientist Emeritus, University of Kansas; former director and
state geologist, Kansas Geological Survey
Gerhard Gerlich, Professor for
Mathematical and Theoretical Physics, Institut für Mathematische
Physik der TU Braunschweig, Germany
Albrecht Glatzle, PhD, sc.agr.,
Agro-Biologist and Gerente ejecutivo, INTTAS, Paraguay
Fred Goldberg, PhD, Adjunct
Professor, Royal Institute of Technology, Mechanical Engineering,
Stockholm, Sweden
Vincent Gray, PhD, expert
reviewer for the IPCC and author of The Greenhouse Delusion: A
Critique of ‘Climate Change 2001, Wellington, New Zealand
William M. Gray, Professor
Emeritus, Dept. of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University
and Head of the Tropical Meteorology Project
Howard Hayden, PhD, Emeritus
Professor of Physics, University of Connecticut
Louis Hissink MSc, M.A.I.G.,
editor, AIG News, and consulting geologist, Perth, Western
Australia
Craig D. Idso, PhD, Chairman,
Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, Arizona
Sherwood B. Idso, PhD, President,
Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, AZ, USA
Andrei Illarionov, PhD, Senior
Fellow, Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity; founder and
director of the Institute of Economic Analysis
Zbigniew Jaworowski, PhD,
physicist, Chairman - Scientific Council of Central Laboratory for
Radiological Protection, Warsaw, Poland
Jon Jenkins, PhD, MD, computer
modelling - virology, NSW, Australia
Wibjorn Karlen, PhD, Emeritus
Professor, Dept. of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology,
Stockholm University, Sweden
Olavi Kärner, Ph.D., Research
Associate, Dept. of Atmospheric Physics, Institute of Astrophysics
and Atmospheric Physics, Toravere, Estonia
Joel M. Kauffman, PhD, Emeritus
Professor of Chemistry, University of the Sciences in Philadelphia
David Kear, PhD, FRSNZ, CMG,
geologist, former Director-General of NZ Dept. of Scientific &
Industrial Research, New Zealand
Madhav Khandekar, PhD, former
research scientist, Environment Canada; editor, Climate Research
(2003-05); editorial board member, Natural Hazards; IPCC expert
reviewer 2007
William Kininmonth M.Sc., M.Admin.,
former head of Australia's National Climate Centre and a
consultant to the World Meteorological organization's Commission
for Climatology Jan J.H. Kop, MSc Ceng FICE (Civil Engineer Fellow
of the Institution of Civil Engineers), Emeritus Prof. of Public
Health Engineering, Technical University Delft, The Netherlands
Prof. R.W.J.
Kouffeld, Emeritus
Professor, Energy Conversion, Delft University of Technology, The
Netherlands
Salomon Kroonenberg, PhD,
Professor, Dept. of Geotechnology, Delft University of Technology,
The Netherlands
Hans H.J. Labohm, PhD, economist,
former advisor to the executive board, Clingendael Institute (The
Netherlands Institute of International Relations), The Netherlands
The Rt. Hon. Lord Lawson of Blaby,
economist; Chairman of the Central Europe Trust; former Chancellor
of the Exchequer, U.K.
Douglas Leahey, PhD,
meteorologist and air-quality consultant, Calgary
David R. Legates, PhD, Director,
Center for Climatic Research, University of Delaware
Marcel Leroux, PhD, Professor
Emeritus of Climatology, University of Lyon, France; former
director of Laboratory of Climatology, Risks and Environment, CNRS
Bryan Leyland, International
Climate Science Coalition, consultant and power engineer,
Auckland, New Zealand
William Lindqvist, PhD,
independent consulting geologist, Calif.
Richard S. Lindzen, PhD, Alfred
P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology, Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric and
Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
A.J. Tom van Loon, PhD, Professor
of Geology (Quaternary Geology), Adam Mickiewicz University,
Poznan, Poland; former President of the European Association of
Science Editors
Anthony R. Lupo, PhD, Associate
Professor of Atmospheric Science, Dept. of Soil, Environmental,
and Atmospheric Science, University of Missouri-Columbia
Richard Mackey, PhD,
Statistician, Australia
Horst Malberg, PhD, Professor for
Meteorology and Climatology, Institut für Meteorologie, Berlin,
Germany
John Maunder, PhD, Climatologist,
former President of the Commission for Climatology of the World
Meteorological Organization (89-97), New Zealand
Alister McFarquhar, PhD,
international economy, Downing College, Cambridge, U.K.
Ross McKitrick, PhD, Associate
Professor, Dept. of Economics, University of Guelph
John McLean, PhD, climate data
analyst, computer scientist, Australia
Owen McShane, PhD, economist,
head of the International Climate Science Coalition; Director,
Centre for Resource Management Studies, New Zealand
Fred Michel, PhD, Director,
Institute of Environmental Sciences and Associate Professor of
Earth Sciences, Carleton University
Frank Milne, PhD, Professor,
Dept. of Economics, Queen's University
Asmunn Moene, PhD, former head of
the Forecasting Centre, Meteorological Institute, Norway
Alan Moran, PhD, Energy
Economist, Director of the IPA's Deregulation Unit, Australia
Nils-Axel Morner, PhD, Emeritus
Professor of Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics, Stockholm
University, Sweden
Lubos Motl, PhD, Physicist,
former Harvard string theorist, Charles University, Prague, Czech
Republic
John Nicol, PhD, Professor
Emeritus of Physics, James Cook University, Australia
David Nowell, M.Sc., Fellow of
the Royal Meteorological Society, former chairman of the NATO
Meteorological Group, Ottawa
James J. O'Brien, PhD, Professor
Emeritus, Meteorology and Oceanography, Florida State University
Cliff Ollier, PhD, Professor
Emeritus (Geology), Research Fellow, University of Western
Australia
Garth W. Paltridge, PhD,
atmospheric physicist, Emeritus Professor and former Director of
the Institute of Antarctic and Southern Ocean Studies, University
of Tasmania, Australia
R. Timothy Patterson, PhD,
Professor, Dept. of Earth Sciences (paleoclimatology), Carleton
University
Al Pekarek, PhD, Associate
Professor of Geology, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Dept., St.
Cloud State University, Minnesota
Ian Plimer, PhD, Professor of
Geology, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of
Adelaide and Emeritus Professor of Earth Sciences, University of
Melbourne, Australia
Brian Pratt, PhD, Professor of
Geology, Sedimentology, University of Saskatchewan
Harry N.A. Priem, PhD, Emeritus
Professor of Planetary Geology and Isotope Geophysics, Utrecht
University; former director of the Netherlands Institute for
Isotope Geosciences
Alex Robson, PhD, Economics,
Australian National University Colonel F.P.M. Rombouts, Branch
Chief - Safety, Quality and Environment, Royal Netherland Air
Force
R.G. Roper, PhD, Professor
Emeritus of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Earth and Atmospheric
Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology
Arthur Rorsch, PhD, Emeritus
Professor, Molecular Genetics, Leiden University, The Netherlands
Rob Scagel, M.Sc., forest
microclimate specialist, principal consultant, Pacific Phytometric
Consultants, B.C.
Tom V. Segalstad, PhD,
(Geology/Geochemistry), Head of the Geological Museum and
Associate Professor of Resource and Environmental Geology,
University of Oslo, Norway
Gary D. Sharp, PhD, Center for
Climate/Ocean Resources Study, Salinas, CA
S. Fred Singer, PhD, Professor
Emeritus of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia and
former director Weather Satellite Service
L. Graham Smith, PhD, Associate
Professor, Dept. of Geography, University of Western Ontario
Roy W. Spencer, PhD,
climatologist, Principal Research Scientist, Earth System Science
Center, The University of Alabama, Huntsville
Peter Stilbs, TeknD, Professor of
Physical Chemistry, Research Leader, School of Chemical Science
and Engineering, KTH (Royal Institute of Technology), Stockholm,
Sweden
Hendrik Tennekes, PhD, former
director of research, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute
Dick Thoenes, PhD, Emeritus
Professor of Chemical Engineering, Eindhoven University of
Technology, The Netherlands
Brian G Valentine, PhD, PE
(Chem.), Technology Manager - Industrial Energy Efficiency,
Adjunct Associate Professor of Engineering Science, University of
Maryland at College Park; Dept of Energy, Washington, DC
Gerrit J. van der Lingen, PhD,
geologist and paleoclimatologist, climate change consultant,
Geoscience Research and Investigations, New Zealand
Len Walker, PhD, Power
Engineering, Australia
Edward J. Wegman, PhD, Department
of Computational and Data Sciences, George Mason University,
Virginia
Stephan Wilksch, PhD, Professor
for Innovation and Technology Management, Production Management
and Logistics, University of Technolgy and Economics Berlin,
Germany
Boris Winterhalter, PhD, senior
marine researcher (retired), Geological Survey of Finland, former
professor in marine geology, University of Helsinki, Finland
David E. Wojick, PhD, P.Eng.,
energy consultant, Virginia
Raphael Wust, PhD, Lecturer,
Marine Geology/Sedimentology, James Cook University, Australia
A. Zichichi, PhD, President of
the World Federation of Scientists, Geneva, Switzerland; Emeritus
Professor of Advanced Physics, University of Bologna, Italy
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